The US is oddly optimistic about Chinese fentanyl clampdown

China has said it will clamp down on fentanyl production after pleas from President Trump.

There is little doubt that China is the main source of the powerful opioid fentanyl. Most legal supply and illicit trade starts in China. But I’m skeptical that China will be that effective for several reasons.

via Twenty20.

First is the problem that is allegedly plaguing the broader trade talks with China — enforcement. It is difficult for the US to know if China enforces the rules as it says it will, and this will apply to fentanyl production too. Fentanyl is relatively easy to manufacture and the Chinese authorities have little effective oversight over chemical production, so it will be hard for the Chinese to clamp down on illegal production, and impossible for US authorities to know for sure they’ve done it.

Second, China claims the fault is solely with US addicts and its permissive society, so while it says it will prohibit much production of fentanyl analogs it doesn’t acknowledge any fault for its role in the ongoing opioid crisis. History shows that China won’t try and enforce assiduously where it doesn’t agree that it’s partly to blame.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, Chinese wages are rising and it is no longer the cheapest chemical producer in the world. Other Asian nations may be in the position to ramp up production of fentanyl if Chinese production falls. And as I found out when researching my book Phake, it is often the Chinese nationals in other places like Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia that drive much of the local illicit production. And we must not forget that India and Bangladesh are in this drug production space too.

China’s crack down on illicit fentanyl analogs is warranted, but I think it is premature to be optimistic that this will actually limit imports into US.